The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have misshaped essential oil projections under intense U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning atomic surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressuring the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of discovering brand-new reserves have the potential to throw governments' long-term preparation into mayhem.
Whatever the truth, rising long term worldwide demands seem certain to overtake production in the next years, specifically provided the high and increasing costs of establishing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a scenario, ingredients and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing rates drive this innovation to the forefront, among the wealthiest prospective production locations has been completely ignored by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to end up being a major gamer in the production of biofuels if enough foreign financial investment can be procured. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is manufactured largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the previous Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom because of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and reasonably little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have largely hindered their capability to cash in on rising global energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric facilities, however their heightened need to generate winter season electricity has actually resulted in autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the farming of their western downstream neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these three downstream nations do have however is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian government authorities, given the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those durable financiers happy to wager on the future, particularly as a plant native to the region has actually already shown itself in trials.
Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is attracting increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business already investigating how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the very first Asian carrier to experiment with flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's operational performance capability and prospective industrial viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and immune to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be used as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another benefit of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A lot (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly attractive concentration of omega-3 fatty acids that make it an especially great livestock feed candidate that is recently acquiring acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is indigenous to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence shows it has been cultivated in Europe for at least three centuries to produce both grease and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a vast array of outcomes of 330-1,700 lbs of seed per acre, with oil material differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have actually been determined to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can produce problems in germination to achieve an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's potential might enable Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's efforts at agrarian reform because attaining independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-dependent in cotton
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Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity
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