Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January
In that case, rates may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states
B40 will need extra 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil criteria at greatest since mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax trek in the middle of inflation, Mistry states
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, but costs are expected to remain raised due to organized expansion of the country's biodiesel mandate, industry experts stated.
The palm oil criteria rate in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the mandatory domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to lower fuel .
Palm oil output next year in top manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared with a projected drop of simply over a million tons this year, Julian McGill, handling director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is forecast to enhance, supply from somewhere else and of other veggie oils is seen tightening.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million lots in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 due to the fact that combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The price rise in palm oil in the previous 7 weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said additional feedstock of around 3 million tons will be needed for B40 implementation, wearing down export supply.
The current palm oil premium has currently caused palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil rates are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest because mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and very bullish, we have to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian consumer products company Godrej International.
He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
consider delaying
B40 execution on issue about its effect on food customers.
Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import responsibility hike
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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